Klaatu escribió:Otra solución sería bombardear Suiza. Pero claro, no es Perejil.
Saludos
Ya se bombardean ellos solitos...
The Swiss National Bank released it reserve data which saw FX reserves grow to 303.8 bln CHF in May from
237.6 bln CHF in April. Analysts are trying to figure out how much of the increase is due to revaluation gains and
how much by added reserves. In the 3rd Q last year the SNB put a floor on the EUR/CHF rate at 1.20 after it fell to
a low of 1.0094 on 8/8/2011. The SNB is concerned that the European crisis is leading to deflation in Switzerland
through a rising CHF. As the CHF increases in value imports go up and exports go down. Local manufacturers
will have to cut prices to stay competitive with imports.
To avoid a deflationary scenario the SNB promised to print
unlimited amounts of CHF to buy foreign currencies. This intervention will ultimately lead to increased asset prices
in real estate as the strong CHF leads to lower mortgage rates. The steady run of deposits out of troubled
European banks has ended up in Switzerland enabling the country to borrow at negative rates. Tuesday;
Switzerland issued short term debt at a negative interest rate of 0.62%. Analysts are describing this phenomenon
as investors being willing to incur a small loss to preserve capital. But there may be another motive. The SNB has
earned the record for incurring the largest foreign exchange losses ever and the losses continue to mount. Some
investors may be willing to make a bet that the SNB will ultimately find it too expensive to defend the 1.2000 level
and back off its purchases. That should lead to a quick 20% pick up in FX, not a bad return. The beauty here is
that if the SNB resorts to punitive negative rates to defend the peg then the bond holder still benefits. Throwing a
monkey wrench into the whole stew SNB president Thomas Jordan said in an interview that Switzerland may
introduce capital controls should the euro completely fall apart.
slds, Marcelo
"Uno es dueño de lo que está dispuesto a perder. De lo demás es esclavo."